Every now and again, if you're like me
life can really give you a challenge.
Sometimes , by no wrong doing of
your own, your biggest plans really
fall asunder. I mean the wheels really
fall off the train.I believe men in the
railroad business call it "gunpow".
From what I understand, "gunpow" is a
reference to an accident at GunPowder
Creek near Baltimore,MD.The train ran into
river after part of the bridge gave way.No one was
killed, but it scared everyone and badly
injured the engineer and fireman.The moral is that it was one hell of a mess and everyone made
it out but not without some horrible injuries. Anyway, with jobless rates on the move up, and lay offs for everyone and their brothers, it looks as if economic HARD TIMES are here.How this happened, Im sure will reveal itself over time.So far, Im making it ok.My investments have been annihilated.My personal performance went from +22% over two years to -53% since October of this year.In September, my trades made me 26% or so.I have maintained about a 33% cash ratio, so Im able to move a little.Hedge fund redemption's, Insurance Company government bail outs (I just dry heaved), and a bridge loan for the Big 3 coupled with a dramatic deflation of commodity prices marinated in oil that ran at 145 bucks a barrel in JULY.July was 4 months ago people.What changed, besides the fact that we all poured our cash into a gas pump during the first 7 months of 2008.This is the funny part...no really, here it comes....these greedy dumbasses never thought that Americans would drive less after fuel prices fell.Companies who make other goods that we consume never dropped prices after fuel declined, and after other commodity prices declined.SOooOOooo....what we got here is....failure to control a deflationary spiral we are falling into as a whole.Fed moved to late...credit markets seized...decline of real estate value accelerated...unemployment increases burden on states as small cap business crumbles due to credit issues...fed sits on hands more...food AND fuel prices stay elevated further pressuring the consumer (70% of the US economy is consumer driven I think)...etc...etc...etc.
Well, I ve had enough.I have sold off stock, accepted the loss where it occurred, and Im moving on.Now I shall trade MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY.This last hour selling at market has created an environment where electronics are king.So I shall indulge them.I always traded with limit orders, but now the volume and % ratios must enlarge and tighten.I have several stock picks in mind that move rapidly, are in cash heavy companies with little or no debt.Most pay dividends also, so thats a plus.Time to get back into the game.Not by choice, but by necessity.Job outlook is bleak.Not impossible, but bleak.That creates a demand for alternate cash flows.I wanted to stay on the sidelines longer, but its not possible.More people trade using computer algorithm programs and 80% of all trading is electronic, so I shall use my calculator instead of common sense to defeat them.Even some big wig "professional" managers use software to trade as opposed to the usual stuff, like..well..#1 does the company earn money?...#2 do they have customer/sales prospects...#3 how much do the insiders v.s. mutual funds own...Debt/equity, and so on. If Under Armor (UA) was a bit cheaper, I'd jump on that one on fundamentals.I made some money this spring on a decline and subsequent bounce in (UA).I have entered the trades for tomorrow, so we shall see what occurs.Im wagering DOW down.Maybe a bounce , when Congress says it will throw a bone to GM.I think money or not, bankruptcy is inevitable for several auto makers.
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